Data
Constituent prices, weights, geopolitical events, and GRP series — all open and reproducible.
Open data files
All files are licensed under CC BY 4.0. Please cite using the information on the About page.
The reproducibility script compute_gcpi.py requires only Python's standard library (no external dependencies). Running it against the provided CSV files reproduces the headline value of GCPI = 100.0 (geometric mean $0.0806 / 1M tokens, April 2026).
Tier S · Llama 3.1 8B · USD / 1M input tokens
| Provider | $/1M tokens | Price type | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepInfra | $0.030 | list | high | |
| Replicate | $0.050 | list | high | |
| Groq | $0.050 | list | high | Input price $0.050/M (output $0.08/M); GCPI uses input price only per §2.1 |
| Together AI | $0.100 | list | high | |
| Fireworks AI | $0.100 | list | high | Custom inference kernels |
| Clarifai | $0.160 | list | high | |
| AWS P5 on-demand | ~$0.250 | derived | medium | GPU-hr → token equiv. |
| AWS G5 spot | ~$0.300 | derived | medium | GPU-hr → token equiv. |
Derived prices converted using benchmark throughput (Llama 3.1 8B). See methodology §3.3 for conversion assumptions.
Index composition
| Provider | Weight | In headline | Weight basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeepInfra | 20.0% | Yes | Estimated API traffic share |
| Groq | 15.0% | Yes | Estimated API traffic share |
| Together AI | 15.0% | Yes | Estimated API traffic share |
| Fireworks AI | 15.0% | Yes | Estimated API traffic share |
| Replicate | 10.0% | Yes | Estimated API traffic share |
| Clarifai | 10.0% | Yes | Estimated API traffic share |
| AWS P5 on-demand | 7.5% | Yes | Estimated API traffic share |
| AWS G5 spot | 7.5% | Yes | Estimated API traffic share |
Cumulative Geopolitical Risk Premium
| Date | GRP (%) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 0.0% | reconstructed |
| Mar 2025 | +1.0% | reconstructed |
| Jun 2025 | −3.0% | reconstructed ← AWS price cut (E001) |
| Sep 2025 | +2.0% | reconstructed |
| Dec 2025 | +5.0% | reconstructed ← H200 uncertainty (E002) |
| Jan 2026 | +12.0% | reconstructed ← BIS rule (E003) |
| Feb 2026 | +15.0% | reconstructed |
| Mar 2026 | +17.0% | reconstructed ← Supermicro (E004) |
| Apr 2026 | +18.0% | high ← inaugural published value |
Prior to April 2026 (formal series start), values are back-filled using web archives and event-study estimates. See methodology §5.
Events informing the GRP estimate
| ID | Date | Event | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| E001 | Jun 2025 | AWS cuts P5/H100 on-demand prices up to 45% — GPU supply glut signal | ↓ negative |
| E002 | Dec 2025 | Trump H200 China pathway announcement — uncertainty spike | ~ mixed |
| E003 | Jan 2026 | BIS case-by-case H200 export licensing; AWS Capacity Block prices +15% | ↑ positive |
| E004 | Mar 2026 | DOJ indicts $2.5B Supermicro GPU smuggling network targeting China | ↑ positive |
Reproduced headline value
Running compute_gcpi.py against the v2026-04-a files produces:
GCPI (Apr 2026) = 100.0 (base period)
Geometric mean = $0.0806 / 1M input tokens
Floor = $0.030 (DeepInfra)
Ceiling = $0.300 (AWS G5 spot)
Dispersion = 10.0×
Constituents = 8
To reproduce: python3 scripts/compute_gcpi.py --period 2026-04 --data-version 2026-04-a